Nome Chamber of Commerce

Special Report: Energy




Creating a Good Energy Debate

As the price of oil topped $61 per barrel for the first time ever, it's time to begin the debate where Nome and Western Alaska can go to solve our ever increasing energy costs. The US is no longer the only main player on the demand cycle with China and India advancing towards a consumer economy. Crude oil futures are 58% above last years levels. What does this mean for Nome and the region? It is my belief that we will never see a sustained price per barrel below $40.00. Nome (and western Alaska) is dependant on diesel fuel for not only our electrical generation, but also as a means of home heating. Over the past two years NJUS has seen a $.80 increase in their fuel costs that has pushed their costs from $1.20 per gallon (all operations costs included) to $2.00 per gallon. I don't know of anyone that has received wage hikes that match these fuel hikes. NJUS has just invested close to $20mm in a state-of-the-art power generation plant that will make the most economical use of each gallon of No. 2 diesel. The current rate of $0.1875 (for first 200 kw) is expected to remain the same but we can expect a increase in the fuel surcharge from the current $0.0283. But the fact remains, we have no control over the price of diesel fuel. For all I know, it could increase to $3.00 per gallon next year. So what is this "Creating a Good Energy Debate"? I believe it's time to begin looking to the future and begin researching long term alternatives that will break us of our dependency on diesel. To the north of Nome lies a potential geothermal source of energy while to the south lays a potential natural gas resource.


GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE

What is it? A Geothermal resource is a geothermal reservoir that is located close to the surface. It is created when the geology of the area has high temperature gradients, where there are deep subterranean faults and cracks that allow rainwater and snowmelt to seep underground sometimes for miles. There the water is heated by hot rocks and circulates back up to the surface to appear as hot springs, mud pots, geysers or fumaroles. If the ascending hot water meets an impermeable rock layer, the water is trapped underground where it fills the pores and cracks comprising 2 to 5% of the volume of the surrounding rock, forming a geothermal reservoir. Much hotter that surface hot springs, geothermal reservoirs can reach temperatures of more than 700 degrees and are a powerful source of energy.

To access the geothermal energy, wells are drilled into the reservoir. The hot water and steam shoot up the well naturally (or are pumped up) at temperatures between 250 and 700 degrees. This hot water and steam then turn turbine generators to produce the power. The cooled water is then ejected back down a return well to start the cycle again. Unlike fossil fuel plants, no fuel is burned and only water vapor is created.

Pilgrim Hot Springs is a classic example of a geothermal resource that has the potential to create a power source for the Nome area. During the 1920's and up to WW II, the Catholic Church heated their buildings using thermal energy and wind energy to pump the hot water out of the reservoir and to the buildings. During the "Geothermal Energy Use at Rural Alaska Sites" public workshop held last month at the Aurora Inn, the geothermal potential of Pilgrin;l Hot Springs was one of the major resources covered. A consultant estimated it would cost around $40 million for a 20 MW binary plant (NJUS capacity with the new plant will be around 15.8 MW). These estimates were based on what he called the "Alaska Cost Factor" where he doubled the actual cost estimate of $20mm. The binary plant would then create power at between 4.5 to 7.5 cents per kilowatt hour with a thirty year plant life. Alaska Energy Authority then estimated it would cost an additional $100,000 per mile to build a transmission line to the Nome grid. Much more geological research would need to be conducted before any economic final economic analysis could be concluded.


NATURAL GAS

A number of months ago we were given a number of technical papers on the potential natural gas resources in the Norton Basin that were completed in the 1970's. These papers noted the occurrence of gas seeps in Norton Sound and the possibility of having commercial quantities of natural gas. In one such paper "Geologic Settings and Source Depth of the. Norton Basin Gas Seep" noted "unsubstantiated reports indicating the existence of natural hydrocarbon seeps near the mouth of the Inglutalik in the northeastern part of Norton Bay and in the Sinuk River valley about 35 km northwest of Nome. " Limited prospecting for oil was also conducted near Hasting Creek in 1906 and again in 1918. Two holes were drilled in 1906, one showing a trace of oil and the other encountered flammable gas at a sufficient pressure to blow the 1,210 pound drill stem 69 feet up the hole. No records indicate any further exploration in 1906. Two holes were drilled in the same area in 1918 and one additional in 1919, only to show negative results.

The Norton Basin did not receive any further exploration until the early 80's when both ARCO Alaska and Exxon Corporation drill exploratory wells looking for commercial quantities of oil. They did not look at the gas potential as they assumed commercial gas development would require a large scale LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) project that was not economically feasible. They found no oil, so the wells were capped and the Norton Sound gas again became an afterthought until just recently.

In January of 2005, the U.S. Department of the Interior completed a paper called the "Engineering and Economic Analysis of Natural Gas Production in the Norton Basin". Hereafter referred to as "The Study". The Executive Summary noted "According to the estimates in the Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources, Alaska Offshore 1995 Assessment, the Norton Basin contains 2,707.80 BCF (billion cubic feet) of potential undiscovered natural gas. Of this amount, at least 18.20 BCF is producible over 30 years and is located within 30 miles of Nome." However, this potential natural 2as resource has not been exolored vet so exact quantities cannot be accurately predicted. The paper focused on natural gas production for electrical generation, but not the potential for gas distribution for both residential and commercial heating. . The study is quite technical and my layman's knowledge of petroleum engineering limits me to try and touch on the main elements and assumptions. I recommend you read this study which can be accessed at:

http://www.mms.gov/alaskalrelNatural_gasNorton.pdf

The Study summarized the potential of developing natural gas from the Norton Basin at a local level on an engineering, geological and economic basis to answer the question "if there is gas, can it produce and can it be economic?" The breakeven price was based on the 2004 price of energy/fuel in Norton Sound region. At the time, average fuel costs were at $1.07 /gallon of No. 2 diesel. Each fuel was converted to BTU/gallon and BTU/dollar for comparison purposes. A number of spreadsheet models were created to analyze numerous aspects of production from Norton Sound beginning with the physical parameters of the gas resource inside the formation to the utilization of gas at the distribution center. A thirty year well life was used although they estimated the gas resource to last much longer.

The Study made use of the well & mud logs produced by Arco Alaska and Exxon to base their feasibility study on. The gas prospect is located 30-40 miles directly south of Nome in the Mid-Tertiary West Sub-basin Fill play that covers 12,400 acres. Water depth is around 50'. A minimum of two productions wells were used from one formation with a third well to inject the drill waste and CO2. Two wells allow for continuous production if one well shuts down for maintenance or well damage. Wells were required to be drilled to the depth of 3,000' to meet the ideal production pressures. Jack up drill rigs would be used to for both the exploration and production wells. Subsea production units would be use to bring produced gas to shore as opposed to a large offshore platform. (Shell Oil uses a subsea production system in the Gulf of Mexico at a depth of 5,300 feet). The product would be transferred via a underwater 30-40 mile pipeline to terminal facility in Nome. Total infrastructure and production costs were estimated at around $97 million.

The Study's Conclusion noted "In summary, the Engineering and Economic Analysis of Natural Gas Production in the Norton Basin study portrays a grim view of natural gas production in the Norton Basin, but only under current conditions". The amount of risk involved in the project would possibly require State of Alaska and Federal Government assistance that could lead to lower financing costs. The Mineral Management Service has provided incentives for high cost/high risk exploration for natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico under the Deepwater Royalty Relief Act of 1995. The Department of Interior has in the past incurred most of the exploration costs in selected government-funded exploration energy costs.

Since this study was written, the price of fuel to NmS has risen from $1.20 to $2.03 per gallon which is nearly double from what The Study's break even price was based on. It also did not look at the potential market for home & commercial heating fuel which would further increase the projects revenues and reduce the risk. Now seems to be the time to begin looking to the future and begin exploring these two options in more detail. This is no different than Cominco/Red Dog searching for shallow gas (coal bed methane) to lower their energy costs. So what is our next step? Since this is a regional problem, I believe the timing is right to involve the City of Nome, Alaska Energy Authority, AVEC and our state and federal congressional delegations to begin taking a serious look at what options we can take for the future.

Mayor Michels noted "the City of Nome has made it a priority to deal with rural energy issues locally and hopefully regionally. In our legislative packet we delivered to the Alaska Legislature and our Congressional Representatives, we have requested assistance for:

- Further exploration of the oil and gas seepage that has been reported thought the century. One outcome of this is that the MMS has published a report about the wells that were drilled 30 miles south in the ocean. We need to know what the next step is for continued exploration.

- The State of Alaska's Energy Authority to continue working with NmS to identify alternate energy resources and assist in procuring additional state and federal funds to study and develop alternate energy sources for electrical generation.

- We will continue to support the Governor's commitment to rural Alaska by including full funding for PCE in his budget submitted to the legislature. Nome will continue to urge the Legislature to fully fund the PCE program for the new fiscal year and continued full funding in seceding years."

This is a long-term problem that will require a long term solution. The Chamber is looking to take the lead on this and has asked Cameron Reitmeier, author of the MMS study to come to Nome and address the Chamber as well as the City Council. We are currently working on the timing of this visit which will probably take place after the Rural Energy Summit that will be held in Valdez on September 20-22nd.

MITCH ERICKSON



Nome Chamber of Commerce
P.O. Box 250
Nome, AK. 99762

Old Federal Building, 110 W. Front Street, Suite 211.
Phone: (907) 443-3879, Fax: (907) 443-3892
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